RikH 5pts @David Horton @RikH The De Hond poll is probably/likely as good as it gets it is the only one that makes sense (movements vs events) and he adjusts his polls when real results differ from the polls. Several others are worse than pathetic. Keep using set ups when reality have shown them wrong or are simply heavily biased.De Hond does also does studies like recently on the differences in the polls.Holland is imho so important as it is a Euro state and the biggest real contributor for Euro rescues after Germany. An exit there would be even more volatile than a Brexit as it would have a high potential to kick out the fundamentals under the EZ. Very likely when the Dutch go so do the Austrians and the Finnish and a few not asset ones in the East.If you look at the polls there basically 40+% is populist or non-governamental. Means that you need weird stuff to get a government plus a truckload of parties (at least 4, more likely 5) anyway (as there are a >10 in parliament). Add that there is no uniting politician available at all (Rutte is a liability for his own party, but there is no real successor). Most right party having to join with a far left one or the other way around to get a majority.Anyway Wilders can now campaign on a referendum as the only one and with say 45% or even a majority (for a referendum not for an out) an enviable position. He just needs the luck of another EU disaster with the usual clueless leadership on top of the agenda. He could likely strengthen hid position by offering coalition candidates his support for exchange of a referendum (which would automaticly include Euro and Schengen).Another one is the Ukraine referendum. An issue still unsolved. And the closer the election comes in roughly a year I think the worse it will get. Rutte simply looks like he wants to ignore it (also in the eyes of the electorate) but does dare.Rutte is now excluding Wilders, however if the polls are right it might well be that Rutte will be put with the garbage after the election and his party will go for a coalition with Wilders.Anyway a great candidate for nextexit, both in damage done as well as chance. Anyway2 with the present long term trend a majority for an exit will happen somewhere in the not too far future. And so does the end of the present political set up.