RikH 5pts 1. Detoxification. Fully agree FN is still seen as a pariah by a lot of people. probably also sufficient to make it a no go in the second round at least of the presidential election.2.Sarko's strategy. You completely miss the plot imho. This is about the second round (and not in general) of the presidential election and about the swing voters in there (and not the electorate in total) plus longer term the position of his party in the voter market. You also have to keep in mind that being anti-FN doesnot mean that you are say anti-immigration. Very likely a majority of the French (and most other Western people) is anti-3rd world immigration. People will not vote for FN imho mainly for 4 reasons: 1) they are economic lefties; 2)anti-immigration is seen as racist; 3) they think the party stinks (the german 39-45 smell); and 4) they doubt the management skilss. 3) If Sarko plays his card medium term right becoming Persident again is a walk in the parc. In this election Sarko will most likely be assured of a second round spot. In the second round he will face either a lefty or MLP. Most likely MLP. There he would like to have the left votes plus as much as possible FN-voter/doubters. Left will very likely go tactic. Alternative lefties go further iso LePen. He needs the LePen vote probably and not want her voters stay home. How to get into the second round. Well as long as Hollande is around no problem under normal conditions he will have to compete with both Lefties and FN.4)As with Cameron long term is the thing. The Socialist are there for the take like in the UK. So if he plays his cards right he could be in the centre of power, as the largest party on top of that. Plus the socialist could be reduced to a lot smaller size than before. Basically like Merkel's CDU in a first past the post system (in the second round). If he doesnot stabilize like Cameron seems to have done with IP the opposition on the right and the lefties can keep the thing together this would be reversed. There seem very little votes to be gained on the left (everybody that is alienated has moved almost by now). At least towards Sarko. Towards the other left and new parties and FN there looks still a lot of gains to be made. Look at the Dutch party went from 1/3 th of the vote to 6-7% simply because it uses a completely outated marketing strategy. The Dutch with their 897324 party parliament are an excellent example what is possible.