RikH 5pts 1. Seehofer has to consider his position in his homestate Bavaria. He has to assure that his party keeps a majority there. Tbo he is probably below 50% (of the seats now if a poll would be held). If this is likely to become structural he has to pull the plug. As important is getting a party like AfD permanently on the map. If this is going to happen he should do the same thing pull the plug out off Merky.2. This is a golden opportunity for AfD or others to establish themselves permanently and/or get a structural boost in the polls. However AfD simply doesnot have the stuff to become a LePen or Wilders like party. leaders are utterly unappealing. And the intellectuals that before run the party were as far removed from the potential voterbase as the traditional parties. So probably more the fact that the populists cannot get their act together than own strength could rescue Merky.3. Same btw for FDP (propose no bail outs and controlled upscale immigration only) or CSU going national could finish Merkel. Only unlikely to happen. CSU going national would be massive. It would finish Merky without successsors (they probably would have to rely on a disabled 70+ guy with health problems) with any appeal and probably get half the right vote.4. Merkel made the first decision as a leader. And it ended badly (result in general as position of herself and her party) so will be unlikely to do that again. Also on say the reneg with the UK, she is likely first to act when things are close to running out of hand (so she can feel the pulse of the electorate and may be she is Lucky and faeces happens after her watch. Plus not go for the not status quo solution (go for the sure thing in the eyes of the public).