RikH 5pts This will be decided by argumentation as much as perception/emotion. It can well be that the arguments are clearly positive, but still the referendum would be lost (a no). Cameron has now clearly a popular mandate for a reneg. However this will all be partly based on Cameron taking on the powers that be in Brussels (the burocrats over there). If he makes the wrong moves and gives the impression that it is just a show (and therefor the referendum will be) it can easily move into the other direction. People like that see Trump in the US or tsipras in Greece (the latter made things worse, but just by going for a fight people accepted that. At least as long as the real life consequences surface. Remember the Scottish referendum, argumentation was on the side of the Ins and clearly, but still it became a close race. Problem with Cameron cs is that they are apparently not able to communicate a rather difficult issue in a short period of time to the general voter. It took more than a year until the clear logic of his strategy was understood by large parts of the electorate. Same with the Scottish issue. Imho it is therefor a big gamble to go for a referendum next year basically on basis of the polls now (on in or out).