Brexit Poll of the Week: largest lead for Leave since campaign start (online YouGov poll)

Leave 46%
Remain 39%
Undecided 11%
Will not vote 4%
An online YouGov poll for The Times puts Leave on 46%, up three points since the end of last week. Remain is on 39%, down three – giving Brexit its largest lead since the start of the campaign.Source: YouGov

14 June 2016

Latest online polls show swing to Brexit side

An online YouGov poll for The Times puts Leave on 46%, up three points since the end of last week. Remain is on 39%, down three – giving Brexit its largest lead since the start of the campaign. ICM online and phone polls for The Guardian yesterday gave the Brexit campaign a six-point lead, with Leave on 53% and Remain on 47%. An ORB poll for The Daily Telegraph put Remain on 49% and Leave on 44%, with Remain down three points and Leave up four. On the news of the polls, the pound fell by more than a cent to $1.4128 and the euro/sterling one-month implied volatility, a measure based on the cost of insurance options taken to protect investors against movement in the pound over the next month, jumped to a record high.

Brexit Study

Open Europe has conducted comprehensive studies of UK withdrawal from the EU and simulated UK-EU negotiations involving key politicians from across Europe:

  • Our original Brexit report draws on detailed economic modelling to assess the impact of different Brexit scenarios.
  • The follow-up Brexit II report looks at recommendations for liberal policies in the fields of trade, immigration and regulation, which we believe are required in the event of a Brexit in order to offset the costs and maximise the economic benefits.
  • Involving key politicians from across Europe, we have simulated UK-EU negotiations for two main scenarios: (1) the UK seeking a new deal after having left the EU and (2) the UK renegotiating EU reform from within.

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