The report sets out four scenarios in the event of so-called Brexit, ranging from a worst-case situation — the loss of 2.2 per cent of national GDP (or £56bn) by 2030 — to one where GDP rises by 1.6 per cent.

The Financial Times, 23 March 2015

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    Anthony Egan

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Need to know facts

30%

UK exports of goods and services to the world (% of GDP)

In the first briefing in a research-series on Brexit, Open Europe explores the impact of an EU withdrawal on exports of UK goods and services. UK exports of goods and services to the EU account for about 14% of UK GPD, while the worldwide figure is 30% of GDP. Open Europe finds that if there were a Brexit, it would be much harder for the UK to secure a free trade deal with the EU in the services sector, than in the goods sector. Source: Open Europe
-2.2%

Worst case scenario: Impact of Brexit on UK GDP

In a worst case scenario, where the UK fails to strike a trade deal with the rest of the EU and does not pursue a free trade agenda, Open Europe estimates that UK GDP would be 2.2% lower in 2030 than if the UK had remained inside the EU. Source: Open Europe