2 September 2016

On the UK’s new relationship with the EU

The Government should set aside the idea of relying solely on the UK’s rights as a WTO member as its preferred outcome. The WTO is not an attractive blueprint. It is an insurance policy if things go wrong. In economic terms, it could amount to shock therapy.

The Government also needs to decide whether the Trade Secretary is supposed to be negotiating trade deals. Given the importance of this to giving substance to Brexit, he probably should be. For that, the UK will need to leave the customs union.

The UK need not replicate the arrangements of other countries  – it will want more market access than Canada, whose trade deal with the EU contains only limited provisions on services, and more control and influence than Norway, which is a passive recipient of single market regulation.

On securing public consent

The Government should explain clearly to the public that most of the fiscal dividend available from the EU budget after Brexit will not materialise.

Parliament should have an opportunity to express a view on the Government’s negotiating position prior to the triggering of Article 50.

On the EU’s negotiating position

A reality check is in order for the EU. The four freedoms of the single market are not inviolable and inextricably interdependent. Far from being ‘completed’, the single market in services remains, in places, an aspiration. Nor is freedom of movement for people as complete as it appears. Purism by EU negotiators on this question would not only be inconsistent with reality; it would also clash with other Member States’ economic interests.

On Article 50

Before triggering Article 50, the Government first needs to decide for which exit door to aim. Furthermore, it should continue to restrain itself from pressing the trigger until it has a good deal of clarity from its negotiating partners that they are in a position to agree reasonable terms.

The Government does not need to trigger Article 50 prematurely to prove its intent. That certainly means waiting until next year. It could mean waiting a good deal longer – even until autumn 2017 after the French and German elections.

A settled relationship with the EU will not be found within the two years specified under Article 50. As such, transitional arrangements may well be required to prevent a sudden reversion to WTO rules.

Andrew Tyrie is Member of Parliament for Chichester, Chairman of the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee and former Chairman of the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards. He writes in a personal capacity and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Open Europe.

If you cannot see the PDF viewer below, please find the full paper here: http://openeurope.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Giving_meaning_to_Brexit_Andrew_Tyrie.pdf

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