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Open Europe's new report on Brexit concludes there is a life for Britain outside the EU. However, it will face a number of tough political and economic choices if it is to prosper.
23 March 2015
Open Europe’s new report today finds that Brexit would not be the end of the world. However, to really prosper post-Brexit, any UK government would need to pursue policies that many of those who want to leave the EU may not want to see – including much freer trade with the rest of the world, lower levels of regulation and even a liberal labour migration policy. Our estimates of the impact of Brexit range between the UK being 2.2% of GDP worse off in 2030 if it leaves and reverts into protectionism; to UK being 1.6% of GDP better off in 2030 if it leaves and pursues economic liberalism. In reality, the UK may fall somewhere in between, with the most realistic scenario ranging from – 0.8% of GDP to 0.6%. This means that Brexit is a more finely balanced calculation than most previous studies have concluded.
We’ll break-down the main findings of the report in a series of blog posts. In the meantime, you can access the full report here.
However, the choices are not just the UK’s but also Europe’s. Importantly, the choices facing the UK outside the EU are similar to the ones facing the EU as a whole now. If it opens up to free trade, deregulates, liberalises and maximises its added value it will not only benefit all EU member states but will also reduce the attractiveness of Brexit.
This is the challenge for both David Cameron and the rest of the EU.