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In a new report, Open Europe assesses the issues raised by No Deal and proposes an action plan for the UK Government. Overall, our judgement is that No Deal will cause some disruption, but that much of this can be managed with the right set of responses.
4 October 2019
Open Europe has today published a new report, “Manageable but Material: The consequences of No Deal and how the Government should respond.”
The report is not a consideration of the merits or otherwise of leaving the EU without a deal. Instead, it assesses the issues raised by No Deal and proposes an action plan for the UK Government. Overall, our judgement is that No Deal will cause some disruption, but that much of this can be managed with the right set of responses.
Open Europe’s report calls on the Government to urgently:
The precise consequences of No Deal are difficult to predict with any certainty. Open Europe’s assessment of the impact of No Deal is as follows:
The colour-coded table below summarises Open Europe’s assessment of 20 key areas affected by No Deal. It takes into account both the extent of disruption, and whether the problem can be mitigated by UK Government action. To see a more detailed version of this table, click here.
Ultimately, our judgment is that No Deal will not be painless for the UK or the EU, and that a negotiated exit would be a preferable outcome. Nevertheless, with the right set of policy responses, No Deal remains an outcome which the Government can manage.
No Deal will also have unpredictable political consequences. The case for a UK-EU trade deal eventually being agreed will remain strong; No Deal is likely to be a reset, rather than a resolution, to negotiations between the UK and the EU. Moreover, whether with or without a deal, Brexit will be very difficult to reverse. This will provide new facts on the ground for the UK’s domestic politics; a case would have to be made for re-joining the EU, rather than not leaving it.
If you cannot see the PDF reader below, click here to access the full report.